e8东的信 _作者: 美 沃伦·巴菲特-第30节
按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
揪筒欢谩父貌莆癖ū碓实北泶铩梗淼恼嬲馐鞘裁础�
The wording in the auditor's standard opinion letter is scheduled to change next year。 The new language represents improvement； but falls far short of describing the limitations of a casualty…insurer audit。 If it is to depict the true state of affairs； we believe the standard opinion letter to shareholders of a property…casualty pany should read something like： 〃We have relied upon representations of management in respect to the liabilities shown for losses and loss adjustment expenses； the estimate of which； in turn； very materially affects the earnings and financial condition herein reported。 We can express no opinion about the accuracy of these figures。 Subject to that important reservation； in our opinion； etc。〃
会计师标准无保留意见查核报告的遣词用语在明年将有重大改变，新的用语有相当的改进，但还是很难充分说明产物意外险公司在查核时所受到的限制，如果一个人想要描述一件事情的真相，我们认为给产物意外险公司股东的标准无保留意见报告中应这样写︰「我们仰赖管理当局提供损失准备与损失费用调整产生财务报表，而这些估计数字事实上影响公司盈余与财务状况甚巨，受限于损失准备的提列先天信息的不足与我们必须提出的意见，我们完全无法对这些数字的正确性表达看法，等等」
If lawsuits develop in respect to wildly inaccurate financial statements （which they do）； auditors will definitely say something of that sort in court anyway。 Why should they not be forthright about their role and its limitations from the outset？
假若有人对这种完全不正确的财务报表提出诉讼官司（事实上就有），会计师一定会在法庭上做类似的辩解，那么他们为什么不一开始就坦白地说明他们真实的角色与所受的限制呢？？
We want to emphasize that we are not faulting auditors for their inability to accurately assess loss reserves （and therefore earnings）。 We fault them only for failing to publicly acknowledge that they can't do this job。
我们想要强调的是我们并不是怪罪会计师没有办法准确地评估损失准备 （当然这会影响到最后的盈余数字），我们无法原谅的是他们没有公开地承认做不到这一点。
From all appearances； the innocent mistakes that are constantly made in reserving are acpanied by others that are deliberate。 Various charlatans have enriched themselves at the expense of the investing public by exploiting； first； the inability of auditors to evaluate reserve figures and； second； the auditors' willingness to confidently certify those figures as if they had the expertise to do so。 We will continue to see such chicanery in the future。 Where 〃earnings〃 can be created by the stroke of a pen； the dishonest will gather。 For them； long…tail insurance is heaven。 The audit wording we suggest would at least serve to put investors on guard against these predators。
从各种不同的角度来看，这种不断在提列损失准备时所犯无心的错误，往往也伴随着许多故意的过失，许多骗徒就是看准会计师没有能力评估这些数字，同时又愿意配合为这些数字背书，假装好象他们真的有这个能力，靠着这种方式来欺骗投资大众赚大钱，在往后的日子我们仍将看到这样的骗局持续上演，只要大笔一挥，盈余便可凭空生出，前述我们建议的查核报告措词，至少可以让无知的投资人提高警觉避免遭到这些掠食者的坑杀。
The taxes that insurance panies pay … which increased materially； though on a delayed basis； upon enactment of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 … took a further turn for the worse at the end of 1987。 We detailed the 1986 changes in last year's report。 We also mented on the irony of a statute that substantially increased 1987 reported earnings for insurers even as it materially reduced both their long…term earnings potential and their business value。 At Berkshire； the temporarily…helpful 〃fresh start〃 adjustment inflated 1987 earnings by 8。2 million。
去年在年报中详述刚通过的税负改革法案，使得保险公司支付的税负以递延渐进的形式大幅增加，这种情况在1987年更加恶化，讽刺的是虽然这个法案大大地影响到保险公司长期的获利与价值，却让保险公司短期的盈余数字格外亮丽，光是在Berkshire1987年的盈余就增加了八百多万美金。
In our opinion； the 1986 Act was the most important economic event affecting the insurance industry over the past decade。 The 1987 Bill further reduced the intercorporate dividends…received credit from 80％ to 70％； effective January 1； 1988； except for cases in which the taxpayer owns at least 20％ of an investee。
就我们个人的看法，1986年的法案是近十多年来保险业界最重要的经济事件， 1987年的新法案进一步将企业间股利可扣抵的比率由80％减为70％，除非被投资公司有超过20％的股权是由一般投资人所拥有。
Investors who have owned stocks or bonds through corporate intermediaries other than qualified investment panies have always been disadvantaged in parison to those owning the same securities directly。 The penalty applying to indirect ownership was greatly increased by the 1986 Tax Bill and； to a lesser extent； by the 1987 Bill； particularly in instances where the intermediary is an insurance pany。 We have no way of offsetting this increased level of taxation。 It simply means that a given set of pre…tax investment returns will now translate into much poorer after…tax results for our shareholders。
投资人透过中间企业法人（除了专业投资公司外）持有的股份或债券，先天上本来就比直接持有这些有价证券要来的不利的多，尤其是在1986年租税改革法案通过后，这种租税惩罚更为明显，（虽然1987年的情况稍微好转一点，尤其是对保险公司来说），我们没有任何方法可以规避这项增加的税负成本，简而言之，现在同样的税前获利，在扣除税负成本后最后所得到的税后净利，要比过去要来得少的多。
All in all； we expect to do well in the insurance business； though our record is sure to be uneven。 The immediate outlook is for substantially lower volume but reasonable earnings improvement。 The decline in premium volume will accelerate after our quota…share agreement with Fireman's Fund expires in 1989。 At some point； likely to be at least a few years away； we may see some major opportunities； for which we are now much better prepared than we were in 1985。
不论如何，我们的保险事业应该可以做的不错，只是最后的成绩可能无法像过去那么好，目前的展望是保费收入将减少，尤其是消防人员基金在1989年到期后，但盈余可略微改善，之后我们可能可以再遇到好机会，不过那可能要好几年以后，届时我们应该可以作好更万全的准备。
Marketable Securities … Permanent Holdings
有价证券…永恒的持股
每当查理跟我为Berkshire旗下的保险公司买进股票（扣除套利交易，后面会再详述），我们采取的态度就好象是我们买下的是一家私人企业一样，我们着重于这家公司的经济前景、经营阶层以及我们支付的价格，我们从来就没有考虑再把这些股份卖出，相反地只要能够预期这家公司的价值能够稳定地增加，我们愿意无限期地持有这些股份，在投资时我们从不把自己当作是市场的分析师、总体经济分析师或是证券分析师，而是企业的分析师。
Whenever Charlie and I buy mon stocks for Berkshire'sinsurance panies （leaving aside arbitrage purchases； discussed later） we approach the transaction as if we were buying into a private business。 We look at the economic prospects of the business； the people in charge of running it； and the price we must pay。 We do not have in mind any time or price for sale。 Indeed； we are willing to hold a stock indefinitely so long as we expect the business to increase in intrinsic value at a satisfactory rate。 When investing； we view ourselves as business analysts … not as market analysts； not as macroeconomic analysts； and not even as security analysts。
我门的方式在交易热络的股票市场相当管用，因为市场三不五时就会突然浮现令人垂涎三尺的投资机会，但这价格其实并不太重要，因为就算是我们持有的股票停止交易很长一段时间我们也不在意，就像是世界百科全书或是费区海默同样没有每天的报价，最后一点，我们的经济利益取决于我们所拥有的公司本身的经济利益，不管我们持有的是全部或者是部份股权都一样。
Our approach makes an active trading market useful； since it periodically presents us with mouth…watering opportunities。 But by no means is it essential： a prolonged suspension of trading in the securities we hold would not bother us any more than does the lack of daily quotations on World Book or Fechheimer。 Eventually； our economic fate will be determined by the economic fate of the business we own； whether our ownership is partial or total。
班哲明．葛拉汉是我的老师，也是我的朋友，很久以前讲过一段有关对于市场波动心态的谈话，是我认为对于投资获利最有帮助的一席话，他说投资人可以试着将股票市场的波动当作是一位市场先生每天给你的报价，他就像是一家私人企业的合伙人，不管怎样，市场先生每天都会报个价格要买下你的股份或是将手中股份卖给你。
Ben Graham； my friend and teacher； long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success。 He said that you should imagine market quotations as ing from a remarkably acmodating fellow named Mr。 Market who is your partner in a private business。 Without fail； Mr。 Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his。
即使是你们所共同拥有的合伙企业经营稳定变化不大，市场先生每天还是会固定提出报价，同时市场先生有一个毛病，那就是他的情绪很不稳定，当他高兴时，往往只看到合伙企业好的一面，所以为了避免手中的股份被你买走，他会提出一个很高的价格，甚至想要从你手中买下你拥有的股份；但有时候，当他觉得沮丧时，眼中看到的只是这家企业的一堆问题，这时他会提出一个非常低的报价要把股份卖给你，因为他很怕你会将手中的股份塞给他。
Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable； Mr。 Market's quotations will be anything but。 For； sad to say； the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems。 At times he feels euphoric and can see on
