the unknown guest(陌生客)-第16节
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from the point of view of the probable coexistence of the three tensesit
appears that they see that which is not yet with the same clearness and on
the same plane as that which is no more； but are incapable of separating
the two visions and picking out the future which alone interests us。 For a
still stronger reason； it is impossible for them to state dates with precision。
Nevertheless； the fact remains that； when we take the trouble to sift their
evidence and have the patience to await the realization of certain events
which are sometimes not due for a long time to come； the future is fairly
often perceived by some of these strange soothsayers。
There are psychometers； however； and notably Mme。 M； Dr。 Osty's
favorite medium； who never confuse the future and the past。 Mme。 M
places her visions in time according to the position which they occupy in
space。 Thus she sees the future in front of her； the past behind her and the
present beside her。 But； notwithstanding these distinctly…graded visions；
she also is incapable of naming her dates exactly； in fact； her mistakes in
this respect are so general that Dr。 Osty looks upon it as a pure
chronological coincidence when a prediction is realized at the moment
foretold。
We should also observe that； in psychometry； only those events can be
perceived which relate directly to the individual communicating with the
percipient； for it is not so much the percipient that sees into us as we that
read in our own subconsciousness； which is momentarily lighted by his
presence。 We must not therefore ask him for predictions of a general
character； whether； for instance； there will be a war in the spring； an
epidemic in the summer or an earthquake in the autumn。 The moment the
question concerns events； however important； with which we are not
intimately connected； he is bound to answer； as do all the genuine
mediums； that he sees nothing。
The area of his vision being thus limited； does he really discover the
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future in it？ After three years of numerous； cautious and systematic
experiments with some twenty mediums； Dr。 Osty categorically declares
that he does：
〃All the incidents；〃 he says； 〃which filled these three years of my life；
whether wished for by me or not； or even absolutely contrary to the
ordinary routine of my life； had always been foretold to me； not all by
each of the clairvoyant subjects； but all by one or other of them。 As I have
been practising these tests continually； it seems to me that the experience
of three years wholly devoted to this object should give some weight to
my opinion on the subject of predictions。〃
This is incontestable； and the sincerity； scientific conscientiousness
and high intellectual value of Dr。 Osty's fine work inspire one with the
most entire confidence。 Unfortunately； he contents himself with quoting
too summarily a few facts and does not； as he ought； give us in extenso the
details of his experiments； controls and tests。 I am well aware that this
would be a thankless and wearisome task； necessitating a large volume
which a mass of puerile incidents and inevitable repetitions would make
almost readable。 Moreover； it could scarcely help taking the form of an
intimate and indiscreet autobiography； and it is not easy to bring one's self
to make this sort of public confession。 But it has to be done。 In a science
which is only in its early stages； it is not enough to show the object
attained and to state one's conviction； it is necessary above all to describe
every path that has been taken and； by an incessant and infinite
accumulation of investigated and attested facts； to enable every one to
draw his own conclusions。 This has been the cumbrous and laborious
method of the Proceedings for over thirty years； and it is the only right one。
Discussion is possible and fruitful only at that price。 In all these
extraconscious matters； we have not yet reached the stage of definite
deduction； we are still bringing up materials to the scene of operations。
Once more； I know that； in these cases； as I have seen for myself； the
really convincing facts are necessarily very rare； indeed； nowhere else do
we meet with the same difficulty。 If the medium tells you； for instance； as
Mme。 M。 seems easily to do； how you will employ your day from the
morning onwards； if she sees you in a certain house in a certain street
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meeting this or that person； it is impossible to say that； on the one hand；
she is not already reading your as yet unconscious plans or intentions； or
that； on the other hand； by doing what she has foreseen； you are not
obeying a suggestion against which you could not fight except by
violently doing the opposite to what it demands of you； which again would
be a case of inverted suggestion。 None therefore would have any value
save predictions of unlikely happenings； clearly defined and outside the
sphere of the person interested。 As Dr。 Osty says：
〃The ideal prognostication would obviously be that of an event so rare；
so sudden and unexpected； implying such a change in one's mode of life
that the theory of coincidence could not decently be put forward。 But； as
everybody is not； in the peaceful course of his threatened by such an
absolutely convincing event； the clairvoyant cannot always reveal to the
person experimentingand reveal it for a more or less approximate date
one of those incidents whose accomplishment would carry irresistible
conviction。〃
In any case； the question of psychometric prognostications calls for
further enquiry； although it is easy even at the present day to forsee the
results。
10
Let us now return to our spontaneous premonitions； in which the
future comes to seek us of its own accord and； so to speak； to challenge us
at home。 I know from personal experience that； when we embark upon
these disconcerting matters； the first impression is scarcely favourable。 We
are very much inclined to laugh； to treat as wearisome tales； as hysterical
hallucinations； as ingenious or interested fictions most or those incidents
which give too violent a shock to the narrow and limited idea which we
have of our human life。 To smile； to reject everything beforehand and to
pass by with averted head； as was done； I remember； in the time of
Galvani； and in the early days of hypnotism； is much more easy and seems
more respectable and prudent than to stop； admit and examine。
Nevertheless we must not forget that it is to some who did not smile so
lightly that we owe the best part of the marvels from whose heights we are
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preparing to smile in our turn。 For the rest； I grant that； thus presented；
hastily and summarily； without the details that throw light upon them and
the proofs that support them； the incidents in question do not show to
advantage and； inasmuch as they are isolated and sparingly chosen； lose
all the weight and authority derived from the compact and imposing mass
whence they are arbitrarily detached。 As I said above； nearly a thousand
cases have been collected； representing probably not the tenth part of those
which a more active and general search might bring together。 The number
is evidently of importance and denotes the enormous pressure of the
mystery； but； if there were only half a dozen genuine casesand Dr。
Maxwell's； Professor Flournoy's； Mrs。 Verrall's； the Marmontel； Jones and
Hamilton cases and some others are undoubtedly genuinethey would be
