the.world.is.flat-第72节

按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！


world。　Social　Security　is　good　fat。　We　need　to　keep　it。　A　welfare　system　that　
discourages　people　from　working　is　bad　fat。　The　sort　of　good　fat　that　actually　needs　
to　be　added　for　a　flat　world　is　wage　insurance。　
According　to　a　study　by　Lori　Kletzer；　an　economist　at　the　University　of　California；　
Santa　Cruz；in　the　1980s　and　'90s；　two…thirds　ofworkers　who　lost　jobsin　manufacturing　
industries　hit　by　overseas　competition　earned　less　on　their　next　job。　A　quarter　of　
workers　who　lost　their　jobs　and　were　reemployed　saw　their　income　fall　30　percent　or　
more。　Losing　a　job　for　any　reason　is　a　trauma…for　the　worker　and　his　or　her　family…but　
particularly　for　older　workers　who　are　less　able　to　adapt　to　new　production　techniques　
or　lack　the　education　to　move　up　into　more　skilled　service　jobs。　
This　idea　of　wage　insurance　was　first　proposed　in　1986　by　Harvard's　Robert　Lawrence　
and　Robert　E。　Litan　of　the　Brookings　Institution；　in　a　
294　
book　called　Saving　Free　Trade。　The　idea　languished　for　a　while　until　it　started　to　
catch　fire　again　with　an　updated　analysis　by　Kletzer　and　Litan　in　2001。　It　got　further　
political　clout　from　the　bipartisan　U。S。　Trade　Deficit　Commission　in　2001。　This　
commission　couldn't　agree　on　anything…　including　the　causes　of　or　what　to　do　about　
the　trade　deficit…　other　than　the　wisdom　of　wage　insurance。　
〃Trade　creates　winners　and　losers；　and　what　we　were　thinking　about　were　mechanisms　
by　which　the　winners　could　compensate　the　losers；　and　particularly　losers　who　were　
enjoying　high　wages　in　a　particular　job　and　suddenly　found　their　new　employment　at　
much　lower　wages；〃　said　Lawrence。　The　way　to　think　about　this；　he　explained；　is　that　
every　worker　has　〃general　skills　and　specific　skills〃　for　which　they　are　paid；　and　
when　you　switch　jobs　you　quickly　discover　which　is　which。　So　you　might　have　a　college　
and　CPA　degree；　or　you　might　have　a　high　school　degree　and　the　ability　to　operate　
a　lathe。　Both　skills　were　reflected　in　your　wages。　But　suppose　one　day　your　lathe　
job　gets　moved　to　China　or　your　basic　accounting　work　is　outsourced　to　India　and　you　
have　to　go　out　and　find　a　new　job。　Your　new　employer　will　not　likely　compensate　you　
much　for　your　specific　skills；　because　your　knowledge　as　a　machine　tool　operator　or　


a　general　accountant　is　probably　of　less　use　to　him　or　her。　You　will　be　paid　largely　
for　your　general　skills；　your　high　school　education　or　college　degree。　Wage　insurance　
would　compensate　you　for　your　old　specific　skills；　for　a　set　period　of　time；　while　
you　take　a　new　job　and　learn　new　specific　skills。　
The　standard　state…run　unemployment　insurance　program　eases　some　of　this　pain　for　
workers；　but　it　does　not　address　their　bigger　concerns　of　declining　wages　in　a　new　
job　and　the　inability　to　pay　for　health　insurance　while　they　are　unemployed　and　
searching。　To　qualify　for　wage　insurance；　workers　seeking　compensation　for　job　loss　
would　have　to　meet　three　criteria。　First；　they　would　have　to　have　lost　their　job　
through　some　form　of　displacement…offshoring；　outsourcing；　downsizing；　or　factory　
closure。　Second；　they　would　have　to　have　held　the　job　for　at　least　two　years。　And　
third；　the　wage　insurance　would　not　be　paid　until　the　workers　found　new　jobs；　which　
would　provide　a　strong　incentive　to　look　
295　
for　work　quickly　and　increase　the　chances　that　they　would　get　on…the…job　retraining。　
On…the…job　training　is　always　the　best　way　to　learn　new　skills…instead　of　having　to　
sign　up　for　some　general　government　training　program；　with　no　promise　of　a　job　at　
the　other　end；　and　go　through　that　while　remaining　unemployed。　
Workers　who　met　those　three　conditions　would　then　receive　payments　for　two　years；　
covering　half　the　drop　in　their　income　from　their　previous　job　（capped　at　10；000　
a　year）。　Kletzer　and　Litan　also　proposed　that　the　government　pay　half　the　health　
insurance　premiums　for　all　〃displaced〃　workers　for　up　to　six　months。　Wage　insurance　
seems　to　me　a　much　better　idea　than　relying　only　on　the　traditional　unemployment　
insurance　offered　by　states；　which　usually　covers　only　about　50　percent　of　most　
workers'　previous　wages；　is　limited　to　six　months；　anddoes　not　help　workers　who　suffer　
a　loss　of　earnings　after　they　take　a　new　job。　
Moreover；　as　Kletzer　and　Litan　noted；　although　all　laid…off　workers　now　have　the　right　
to　purchase　unsubsidized　health　insurance　from　their　former　employer　if　health　
coverage　was　offered　when　they　were　employed；　many　jobless　workers　do　not　have　the　
money　to　take　advantage　of　this　guarantee。　Also；　while　unemployed　workers　can　earn　
an　additional　fifty…two　weeks　of　unemployment　insurance　if　they　enroll　in　an　approved　
retraining　program；　workers　have　no　guarantee　that　when　they　finish　such　a　program　
they　will　have　a　job。　
For　all　these　reasons；　the　Kletzer…Litan　proposal　makes　a　lot　of　sense　to　me　as　the　
right　benefit　for　cushioning　workers　in　a　flat　world。　Moreover；　such　a　program　would　
be　eminently　affordable。　Litan　estimated　that　at　an　unemployment　rate　of　5　percent；　
the　wage　insurance　and　health…care　subsidy　today　would　cost　around　8　billion　a　year；　
which　is　peanuts　compared　to　the　positive　impact　it　could　have　on　workers。　This　program　
would　not　replace　classic　state…run　unemployment　insurance　for　workers　who　opt　for　
that；　but　if　it　worked　as　projected；　it　could　actually　reduce　the　cost　of　such　programs　
by　moving　people　back　to　work　quicker。　
Some　might　ask；　Why　be　compassionate　at　all？　Why　keep　any　fat；　friction；　or　barriers？　
Let　me　put　it　as　bluntly　as　I　can：　If　you　are　not　a　com296　


passionate　flatist…if　you　are　just　a　let　'er　rip　free…market　flatist…you　are　not　only　
cruel；　you　are　a　fool。　You　are　courting　a　political　backlash　by　those　who　can　and　
will　get　churned　up　by　this　flattening　process；　and　that　backlash　could　become　
ferocious　if　we　hit　any　kind　of　prolonged　recession。　
The　transition　to　a　flat　world　is　going　to　stress　many　people。　As　Joshua　S。　Levine；　
E*Trade　's　chief　technology　officer；　put　it　to　me；　'You　know　how　sometimes　you　go　
through　a　harrowing　experience　and　you　need　a　respite；　but　the　respite　never　seems　
to　come。　Look　at　the　airline　workers。　They　go　through　this　＇terrible＇　event　like　9/11；　
and　management　and　the　airline　unions　all　negotiate　for　four　months　and　management　
says；　'If　the　unions　don't　cut　2　billion　in　salary　and　benefits　they　will　have　to　
shut　the　airline　down。'　And　after　these　wrenching　negotiations　the　unions　agree。　I　
just　have　to　laugh；　because　you　know　that　in　a　few　months　management　is　going　to　come　
right　back　。　。　。　There　is　no　end。　No　one　has　to　ask　me　to　cut　my　budget　each　year。　
We　all　just　know　that　each　year　we　will　be　expected　to　do　more　with　less。　If　you　are　
a　revenue　producer；　you　are　expected　to　come　up　with　more　revenue　every　year；　and　
if　you　are　an　expense　saver；　you　are　expected　to　come　up　with　more　savings　every　year。　
You　never　get　a　break　from　it。〃　
If　societies　are　unable　to　manage　the　strains　that　are　produced　by　this　flattening；　
there　will　be　a　backlash；　and　political　forces　will　attempt　to　reinsert　some　of　the　
frictions　and　protectionist　barriers　that　the　flattening　forces　have　eliminated；　but　
they　will　do　it　in　a　crude　way　that　will；　in　the　name　of　protecting　the　weak；　end　
up　lowering　everyone's　standard　of　living。　Former　Mexican　president　Ernesto　Zedillo　
is　very　sensitive　to　this　problem；　having　had　to　manage　Mexico's　transition　into　NAFTA；　
with　all　of　the　strains　that　put　on　Mexican　society。　Speakingof　the　flattening　process；　
he　said　to　me；　〃It　would　be　very　hard　to　stop；　but　it　can　be　stopped　for　a　time。　Maybe　
you　can't　stop　it　totally；　but　you　can　slow　it　down。　And　it　makes　a　difference　whether　
you　get　there　in　twenty…five　years　or　fifty　years。　In　between；　two　or　three　
generations…who　could　have　benefited　a　lot　from　more　trade　and　globalization…will　
end　up　with　crumbs。〃　

Always　remember；　said　Zedillo；　that　behind　all　this　technology　is　a　political　
infrastructure　that　enables　it　to　play　out。　〃There　have　been　a　series　of　concrete　
political　decisions；　taken　over　the　last　fifty　years；　that　put　the　world　where　it　
is　right　now；〃　he　said。　〃Therefore；　there　are　political　decisions　that　could　screw　
up　the　whole　process　too。〃　
As　the　saying　goes：　If　you　want　to　live　like　a　Republican；　vote　like　a　Democrat…take　
good　care　of　the　losers　and　left…behinds。　The　only　way　to　be　a　flatist　is　to　be　a　
compassionate　flatist。　
Social　Activism　
One　new　area　that　is　going　to　need　sorting　out　is　the　relationship　between　global　
corporations　and　their　own　moral　consciences。　Some　may　laugh　at　the　notion　that　a　
global　corporation　even　has　a　moral　conscience；　or　should　ever　be　expected　to　develop　
one。　But　some　do　and　others　are　going　to　have　to　develop　one；　for　one　simple　reason：　
In　the　flat　world；　with　lengthy　global　supply　chains；　the　balance　of　power　between　


global　companies　and　the　individual　communities　in　which　they　operate　is　tilting　more　
and　more　in　favor　of　the　companies；　many　of　them　American…based。　As　such；　these　
companies　are　going　to　command　more　power；　not　only　to　create　value　but　also　to　
transmit　values；　than　any　transnational　institutions　on　the　pl