走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第77节
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rtunity for writers。 Here are the steps to follow：
给期权定价的一个关键因素是标的证券的波动性。在很多波动软件里面都有布林通道，它能帮助你计算波动性。在均线附近的标准背离通道不像包络线，它们的墙是平行的，他们随着波动性扩张。当市场平静时布林通道变窄；当市场疯狂时通道变宽。
Analyze a security against which you want to write options。 Use Triple Screen to decide whether a stock； future； or an index is trending or nontrending。 Use weekly and daily charts； trend…following indicators； and oscillators to identify trends； detect reversals； and set up price targets。
分析你要发行期权的标的证券。用三重滤网分析是否股票，期货或股指期货有趋势。用周线图，日线图，趋势跟踪指标，振荡指标确认趋势，发现反转，设定价格目标。
Select the type of option to write。 If your analysis is bearish； consider writing calls。 If bullish； consider writing puts。 When the trend is up； sell the hope that it will turn down； and when it’s down； sell the hope it’ll turn up。 Do not write options when markets are flat and Bollinger bands are tight because premiums are low； and a breakout from a trading range can hurt you。
选择期权类型。如果你分析是下跌，考虑发行看涨期权。如果是上涨，考虑发行看跌期权。当趋势上涨时，卖出下跌的希望；当趋势下跌时，卖出上涨的希望。当市场横盘，布林通道很窄时不要发行期权，因为收益低，横盘突破会伤害你。
Estimate how far； with a generous safety margin； the market would have to move in order to change its trend； and write an option beyond that zone。 Write an option with a strike price the market is unlikely to reach before the expiration。 Suppose a stock is at 80； having risen from 50 in the past year and is now rising half a point per week； with 8 weeks left to option expiration。 The trend is up； and selling a 70 put under those circumstances means selling an option that is likely to expire worthless。
分析市场会走多远，何时会反转，在这个范围之外发行期权。发行期权要保证在到期是之前市场到行权价的可能性低。假如股票是80，过去一年从50涨起来的，现在每周涨0。5点，8周后期权就到期。趋势上涨，在这种情况下卖出行权价为70的看跌期权意味着卖出的期权可能到期作废。
The temptation to sell naked options close to the money and get fatter premiums is dangerous； because a slight countertrend move can push your position underwater。 Look at the number of weeks remaining to the expiration； calculate the distance the market is likely to travel based on its recent behavior； and write an option outside that range。
想卖出无标的证券期权，赚大钱的想法是危险的，因为轻微的反转就能把你的仓位拉下水。看看还有几周到期，根据市场最近的表现计算它要跑多远，然后在这范围之外发行期权。
Write options with no more than two months to the expiration。 The shorter the time； the fewer surprises。 The erosion of time value accelerates in the last few weeks of option life。 When you write options close to the expiration； you benefit from faster time decay。 You can get more money for options with longer life； but do not get greedy。 The goal of a writer is not to make a killing on any single trade but to grind out a steady ine。
在2个月内到期时发行期权。时间越短，意外越少。在期权的最后几周时间内时间价值会加速贬值。当你发行的期权接近于到期日，你就能享受时间价值快速贬值的好处。时间长的期权赚的钱多，但不要太贪婪。发行期权的目的不是每笔交易大赚，而是稳定的收益。
LIMITING RISK A trader can keep writing naked calls or puts； but do it long enough； and some day he will get caught on the wrong side of a powerful move。 Profits of several years can be wiped out in a single day。
控制风险 交易者可以经常发行无标的证券期权，但是如果做的时间久了，总有一天要被强大的反向波动陷害。几年的利润可能一天就没有了。
For example； whenever there is a great bull market； the pros look at selling puts like a license to print money。 The contrarians； the alarmists； and “the end is nigh” crowd keep buying puts for years and losing money； but suddenly there is a crash and buyers have their day in the sun。 The pros who have been feeding off them for years face their day of reckoning … the quick ones survive； while the slow ones are carried out feet first。
比如，只要有上涨的大波动，专业人士觉得卖看跌期权就像是在印钞票。持相反观点的人，持批评态度的人，持快到头了的人，常年来一直买入看跌期权，一直亏钱，但是突然崩盘了，买家终于迎来了阳光灿烂的日子。常年来，靠他们赚钱的专业人士迎来了审判日——动作快的可以生存，但是要等动作慢的先走。
A trader can grow fat and greedy writing naked options； selling useless contracts created out of thin air and pocketing profits。 A smug feeling of self…satisfaction blinds people to reality。 Naked positions in options need to be protected by stops and money management rules。
无标的证券期权发行人可以赚很多钱，还变得贪婪，不断凭空卖出没有价值的期权赚钱。被自满蒙蔽了现实。发行无标的证券期权也要止损，也要资金管理的原则。
Use a mental stop…loss on the underlying security。 Set a stop on the underlying stock； future； or index and not on the price of your option。 Buy back that option if the underlying security reaches your stop level。 For example； if you sell a naked 80 call on a stock trading at 70； place your stop at 77。 Get out of your naked option position before it gets into the money by crossing its exercise price。
思想止损。为相对的股票，期货或股指期货止损，不是给期权止损。如果相对的证券到了止损点，你要买回期权。比如，如果你卖出无标的证券看涨期权，行权价是80，股票价现在是70，止损点放在77。当价格到达行权价之前，你要把期权平仓。
Your stop is like an ejection seat on an aircraft。 If you write an out…of…the…money option and the market starts moving into the money； there is no point in sticking around； waiting to see what happens next。 You are wrong； and you’re losing … push the eject button before the damage turns deadly。 If you sold an option for 1。50； by the time it hits your at…the…money stop level it may double in price to 3。 If you use stops； you’ll be nowhere near the “unlimited loss” that makes people afraid to write options。
止损就想是飞机上的弹射椅。如果你发行了无标的证券期权，结果市场要到达行权价了，你没有理由继续等待。你已经错了，你亏损了——在致命的亏损发生前按弹射椅的按钮吧。如果你在1。50卖出期权，当价格到达你的止损点时，它可能已经涨到3了。如果你止损，你就不会最终亏损，也就不会害怕继续发行期权。
Set your profit…taking zone … consider buying back your naked option。 When you write a call or a put； you sell a wasting asset。 When the underlying security moves far from the exercise price but there is still time left to the expiration； the price of that option may reach its rock bottom。 It loses value only in tiny dribs and drabs。 The loser who bought that option still has a bit of a chance that the market may reverse in his favor。 He continues to hold that call or put like a lottery ticket； and once in a rare while his ticket may win。
设置你的利润目标——考虑买回你的无标的证券期权。当你法相期权时，你卖出的是没有价值的资产。当标的证券从离行权价很远的地方开始运动，还要很长时间才能到期，期权的价格也许会到底了。它不值钱时就会失去价值了。买了期权的输家还是有一点点机会等市场发转的。他继续持有期权，就像拿着彩票一样，偶尔一次他的期权会赢。
Why hold an open position in an option that has already given you most of its value？ You have little to gain； while remaining exposed to the risk of an adverse move。 Consider buying back that option to close out your profitable trade。
如果期权已经给你好处了，为什么还要持有？你的收益很少，还要面对反转的风险。要考虑买回期权，以兑现利润。
Open an insurance account。 A naked seller needs insurance against a catastrophic reversal。 You may write a put and the market crashes the next day； or you write a call and suddenly there is a takeover。 You hope this never happens； but trade long enough and eventually everything will happen！ That’s why you need insurance。 Nobody will write it for you； so you’ll have to self…insure。
开保险账户。无标的证券期权发行人需要为防止灾难式反转做保险。也许你今天发行了看跌期权，市场第二天就崩溃了；或者你发行了看涨期权，突然就有人要求得到股票。你不希望这样的事会发生，但只要你长期交易，最终任何事都会发生！这就是你需要保险的原因。没有人会为你发行保险，所以你要自己保险。
Open a money market account； and every time you close out a naked writing position； throw a percentage of your profit； 10 percent or more； into that account。 Do not use it for trading。 Have it sit there； in a money market fund； for as long as you write options。 Your insurance account grows with each new profit； ready to cover a catastrophic loss or to be taken out in cash when you stop writing options！
开一个银行账户，每次你发行无标的证券期权赚钱后，都拿一部分利润存起来，存10％或更多。交易时不要动用。就让它留在银行账号，直到你不再做期权为止。随着你每笔交易赚钱，你的银行账户就会长大，就会应付你的灾难性亏损，也可以在你不做期权后拿出来用。
Option writers get hurt in one of three ways。 Beginners overtrade and write too many options； breaking money management rules。 Intermediate…level traders get hurt when they fail to run fast enough when their options move against them。 Experienced traders can get blown out if they do not have a reserve against a major adverse move。 The longer you trade； the greater your risk of a catastrophic event。 Having an insurance account confirms your position as a professional option writer。
发行期权的人有3个受伤的方式。新手过度交易，发行了太多的期权，打破了资金管理原则。水平高一点的交易者，当仓位不利时，逃跑的太慢了。有经验的交易者如果长期平安无事，那么哪�
