股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第23节
按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
a range。 I realize that this。can hardly be called a 〃breakthrough in technical analysis；〃' but it was。all new to me。
I bought all of the Gann books； and he seemed to be talking a great deal about ranges。 I know that Gann did not have a monopoly in this。area of technical analysis。 Many authors。based their theories。on ranges。and still do。 It's。called price action and reaction。 Over time； my research showed me that these ranges。were often repeated； exactly； in both time and price。 So I started to believe that the time range （that is； the elapsed time between； say； a bottom and a top—often called a wave or a cycle） was。even bit as relevant to my decision…making process。as。the price range。 I began to realize that time was。more important than price。
Time was。also more consistent。 Being more consistent； my research showed； made time more tradable。 I also found that the time spans。from bottom to bottom and top to top gave me cycles。that repeated。 That's。the information you need to plete a forecast。 If you're going to get your forecastsrrect and use them to make trading decisions； you have to identify cycles。that repeat。 If and when they repeat； you'll be right。 It's。as simple as。that。
Later； I was。to see this confirmed in major trading books。like The Major Works。of R。N。 Elliott； edited by Robert R。 Prechter； The Elliott Wave Principle by Prechter and A。J。 Frost； and in the work。of Frank。Tubbs。and just about everyone else who had written about price action and reaction。 But seldom did I see these masters。treat time as。an entity。 In this； my。inspiration came first from the works。of W。D。 Gann and what he had to say about ranges。
My。next inspiration came from Gann's。discussions。of 〃natural time”。 Put simply； he divided the year into the four seasons。and the price was。divided into 360o。 By simply doing some price action and reaction； I was。able to learn the lessons。as。outlined by Gann。 It's。best to master the price lessons。first； then move on to time。 After you've pleted the second part of the lesson and have gained an understanding of how these things。work； you can bine both lessons and get a time and price forecast。 To begin； you may draw a trend line or a moving average。
Market…Testing。a Trading。Plan
So far we've talked only about a theory； but you must acquire some data and back…test your theory on a market。 This。should result in your developing a trading plan。 You'll have a percentage of winning and losing trades。over a set period of time。 That's。called paper trading。 Next es。the fun part： You must take your trading plan to the market； and the market will tell you how good you are。 Sometimes； as。Jesse Livermore so aptly put it； 〃When the market moves。against you； it is。like having an amputation without anaesthetic〃。 Until you've market…tested your program； you've achieved nothing。 Remember； everything looks。good before it's。tested。 I see this。in building race cars。 In the shop； everything looks。like a winner。 Only out on the track do the defects e to light。 In trading—as。in racing； or a business。agreement； or a marriage for that matter—it all looks good at the start。
In technical analysis； all players。are like sailboats。 When the starting gun is。fired—in this。case； the start is。the opening bell—we're on our way。 We may take a different tack； looking for that magic puff of the wind to take us。from point A to point B in the shortest possible time。 But it's。not always。the shortest course that works。best。 We're all heading in different directions。to the same finish line。
There is。no monopoly。in market smarts。 The best indicator is。usually the checkbook； but this。is。not always。the case。 We enjoy the process。of winning； but in most cases。we learn more from losing。 Perhaps。that's。because we ponder our losses。more。 Never fear change； but make sure you have a process。to discriminate between changes。that are for the better and those for the worse。 Then follow up with an unremitting willingness。to shoulder whatever responsibility。is。required。
You must have a passion for trading。 You must love it； or you will never last。 I have found that too many wins。usually lead to a false sense of pride； and we all know that 〃pride eth before a fall。〃 You can either learn that lesson at the start or have the market teach it to you later on。
Over the years； I've found that many traders。are fighting a fear of monetary doom； some sort of financial Armageddon。 But if they do their research carefully enough； they can neutralize this。fear。 Many times。I've been broke and just had to get back。up off the floor。 So it seems。reasonable to me that I have lost this。〃fear of financial insecurity”。
Fears。notwithstanding； developing and proving a good trading plan is。a must if you want to arrive at the port called 〃financial security。〃 Initially； a large proportion of the capital you have on the table will be your own。 If you have all your eggs in one basket； it pays。to watch that basket carefully。 I say this。because I've done it。 In my case； it was。necessary。 When you have a win； make sure you retain some of the profit。 Don't keep doubling up against the house； because at some point the house is。going to take the lot。 Read whatever you can get on money management。 You will be told to risk。somewhere between 1 percent and 10 percent of your capital。 The hard part is。that you must take the greatest risks。when you start out。 It's。a learning curve。 Is。it possible to put an old trader's。head on a young trader's。shoulders？ I'm afraid not。
Your trading plan is。your ticket for the trip。 Not that a plan gives。you any guarantee of financial security； the point is。far more important than that： It’s。possible to pletely lose that feeling of impending doom just by doing your homework。 Your trading plan is。your security。 To paraphrase Ludwig Wittgenstein； 〃The world of the successful trader is。quite different from that of the unsuccessful trader。*
Technical analysis。offers。a smorgasbord of alternatives。 The object is。not to eat the lot。 The idea is。to select what you want。 The methods。used in technical analysis； such as。those presented in this。book； have been proven by each individual's。success。 There is。no guarantee that any of them will work。exactly the same way for you； but there is。a high probability that you will find something of value in your journey as。a trader。 It’s。often said that past results are not always。indicative of future performance； but in testing a trading plan； I would rather see it produce a profit than a loss。 Past performance means。something to me。 I doubt I'm the only one who sees。it that way。
Following Gann's Lead
I'm happy that I took my first cues from W。D。 Gann。 He started trading on August 15； 1902； and his。methods。have stood the test of time for more than a century。 I have had to adapt some of his。lessons。to suit the current markets and； in some cases； I've had to modify some rides。 Not only do we have new financial products。that trade twenty…four hours。a day； but also many of the markets。he traded so successfully no longer even exist。 It's。not a matter of writing new rules； it's。more a question of adapting and simplifying the old ones so that they're workable in the twenty…first century。 The process is。a bit like deciphering the da Vinci code； and； to me； W。D。 Gann's。methods。are the holy grail of technical analysis； I think。I am as。qualified as the next bloke to make this。statement。
From the start； Gann seemed to me to have the answers。 Sometimes。they were the wrong answers； but they were the only。answers。available at that time。 So I did not start out with a grand plan； nor did I have a lot of money； which is。an advantage。 Heaven help those who start out trading futures with a lot of money—especially other people's。 Since then； I've made even possible mistake： I've traded with borrowed money。 I’ve often overtraded my。account。 I've traded against the trend； and I've traded while under so much pressure that all I could do was。squeak。
I traded on my own from late in 1985 through February 1986。 During that time； I made some money； which I promptly withdrew from the trading account； basically to live on。 Of course； I should have left the profits。there as。a buffer for the hard times。that would surelye； but I didn't。 So when I look。a hit； all that I had to show for my six months。of work。was a margin call。 That nearly ended my trading career； but my broker pointed out that overall I had not actually made a loss。on my trading。 I had increased the number of contracts I was。trading； while decreasing the capital。
As。I pondered all of this； my trading account stayed in arrears。 Alter a couple of weeks； I decided to put more money into the account and take one trade based on what I'd learned。 I resolved that if I made money on that trade； I would go back。to my research and try。to bee a successful trader。 If I lost money； I would quit for good。 Well； I made back。more than I'd lost。 So I returned to my research feeling like a winner。 Of course； my victories。weren't enough to keep me from having to collect unemployment benefits。to eat。
I thought I could write a trading plan in about six weeks； but it took。more than six months。 I borrowed some money to open what I called a specimen account and gave myself three months。to succeed。 I had
